Surprise! It’s staying hot and dry

Forecast is more  heat, less rain  than usual

The Bureau of Meteorology’s outlook for higher than usual rainfall

THE REST OF THE SOUTH AUSTRALiAN fire danger season is likely to remain hotter and drier than usual, according ot the Bureau of Meteorology.

The February to April outlook, released by the Bureau on January 17, puts the chances of getting more than 50 mm of rain in the next three months at less than 55 per cent for most of South Australia, except the Adelaide Hills, Kangaroo Island, and the south-eatern corner of the state.

The February to April median (mid range) rainfall for these areas between 1990 and 2012 was between 100 and 200 millimetres. This year they are thought to have only a 65 to 75 per cent chance of beating that.

Western parts of South Australia in particular  are likely to be drier than usual for the next three months.

However, forecasting is not an exact science, and the Bureau’s accuracy in predicting rainfall at this time of the year is less than 50 per cent for most of the state. Even for the Adelaide/Yorke Peninsula and KI regions it has only been around 55 per cent.

It says an El Niño event has not yet become established. (El Niño typically results in below-average rainfall for northern and eastern Australia, and warmer days for the southern two-thirds of the country.)

But the Bureau’s modelling still suggests "tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are likely to reach El Niño levels through early autoumn and then return to neutral”.

Temperatures are likely to remain above the 1990-2012 benchmark for most of the state for the next three months.

The Bureau’s map of South Australia’s temperature outlook.


South Australian Fire Danger Season Dates: 

Eastern Eyre Peninsula - November 1, 2018 to April 15, 2019.
Flinders Fire Ban District - October 22, 2018 to April 15, 2019.
Lower Eyre Peninsula - November 1, 2018 to April 15, 2019.
Lower South East - November 22, 2018 to April 30, 2019
Mid North - November 1, 2018 to April 30, 2019.
Murraylands - November 1, 2018 to April 15, 2019
North East Pastoral - October 22, 2018 to March 31, 2019.
North West Pastoral - October 22, 2018 to March 31, 2019.
Riverland - November 1, 2018 to April 15, 2019
Upper South East - November 15, 2018 to April 30, 2019
West Coast Fire Ban - November 1, 2018 to April 15, 2019.
Yorke Peninsula - November 1, 2018 to April 15, 2019.
Mount Lofty Ranges - November 17, 2018 to April 30, 2019.
Adelaide Metropolitan - November 17, 2018 to April 30, 2019.
Kangaroo Island - December 1, 20018 to 30 April, 2019.

Updated  January 24, 2019